Leap-Frogging Poles

I believe there is a swing to National, but also that Labour has yet to unleashed its big vote buying policy's and promises. That will pull that National swing back into a leap-frogging neck and neck election. And if National does not have that strong swing . Standing New Plymouth MP Harry Duynhoven will win New Plymouth. This will mean the local National party will not have a constituent MP, and may even loose gaining a list MP, if they ask their supporters both for their candidate and their party vote. Instead of not just concentrating on the more important party vote, loosing both.

Why I think National has the running at the moment, as I have said before.
Under MMP there are two indicators:(1) Who ever wins Auckland will be the next govt. Because under MMP that's where the numbers (people) are.(2) Who ever is the most preferred Prime Minister. Because you would not have the most preferred Prime Minister in opposition.At the moment it is Leap-frogging in the polls, who is the most preferred Prime Minister. We will have a clearer picture closer to next years general election 2008. We won't know until after next years 2008 election, who will take Auckland. But early indicators are already showing up in this years local body elections. John Banks return to Auckland as mayor, indicates that Auckland is strongly leaning towards National.
For National to successfully govern they will still need as many like minded coalition partners as possible, even independents. No use winning an election and then not be able to muster the numbers to govern, or having to concede to a minor coalition party with apposing views to that of National supporters, in order to be in power. Or they will be out on their ear came the next election. Something for the National strategists to think about.
National supporters will not want National to covert or overt with another party. ie: Maori Party or the Greens.
But under MMP it's a reality of todays politics's. What I am offering the National supporters is a better option. Vote Rusty Kane a local Independent candidate that only wants best for New Plymouth that states long before election day he supports a National/Green coalition. Not that the National party supports or believes that, but I believe a lot of National and Green supporters will.
Locally the makes a lot of sense for New Plymouth John Keys National supporters.. Two for John... not one.

If you say nothing, do nothing, stand for nothing, and achieve nothing, the chances are you'll be remembered as a good bloke. ( Sir Robert Muldon ) .....

You only live once make a splash and make it count. ( John Banks ) .....

Rusty Kane
New Plymouth
New Zealand

The Two Indicators.

I am constantly asked who will be the next Govt.
My reply is...There are two indicators:
(1) Who ever wins Auckland will be the next govt. Because under MMP that's where the numbers (people) are.
(2) Who ever is the most preferred Prime Minister. Because you would not have the most preferred Prime Minister in opposition.

It is neck and neck now, but we will have a clearer picture closer to next years 2008 general election who is the most preferred Prime Minister.
We won't know untill after next years 2008 election, who will take Auckland. But early indicators are already showing up in this years local body elections. John Banks return to Auckland central as mayor, indicates that Auckland is strongly leaning towards National.

Rusty Kane NZ